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<p>　　</p><p>　　近日，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)傳出阿爾·戈?duì)柭暦Q他將不參加2004年總統(tǒng)大選的消息。比起正在緊鑼密鼓的“倒薩”戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)準(zhǔn)備來，這算不上什么驚人的消息。但是，一直以為戈?duì)枙?huì)在下屆總統(tǒng)大選再挑戰(zhàn)小布什的人們不禁產(chǎn)生這樣的疑問：戈?duì)枮槭裁床粎⒓酉聦每偨y(tǒng)大選？</p><p>　　</p><p>　　從旁觀者角度，我認(rèn)為，以下幾個(gè)因素可能促使戈?duì)栕龀霾粎⑦x的抉擇。</p><p>　　</p><p>　　首先是民主黨和共和黨的力量對(duì)比失衡，上個(gè)月5月結(jié)束的中期大選結(jié)果充分地說明了這一點(diǎn)。選舉前，民主黨以50席對(duì)共和黨的49席（另有一席空缺）控制著參議院，眾議院雖然控制在共和黨人手中，但民主黨也擁有435席中的211席。在國(guó)會(huì)中占據(jù)著半壁江山，民主黨在一定程度上就可以牽制共和黨和布什政府。可在選舉后，民主黨一敗涂地，不僅在眾議院的席位降至205個(gè)，而且在參議院又少了3席，控制權(quán)也被共和黨奪去。這樣一來，美國(guó)就出現(xiàn)了少見的國(guó)會(huì)兩院和政府都由一個(gè)黨控制的局面。共和黨不僅利用這種局面推行自己的內(nèi)政外交政策，更可以為兩年后的總統(tǒng)大選造勢(shì)。</p><p>　　</p><p>　　其次是戈?duì)柵c小布什的支持度對(duì)比失衡。在兩年前的總統(tǒng)大選中，戈?duì)柵c小布什打得難解難分，人工一張一張地?cái)?shù)票都沒有分出勝負(fù)，最終還是靠法院的裁定才將小布什送進(jìn)白宮。雖然在主政的這兩年，小布什命運(yùn)多舛，遭受到美國(guó)歷史上前所未有過的災(zāi)難。但是，恐怖分子的恐怖活動(dòng)也造就出一個(gè)強(qiáng)硬的總統(tǒng)和進(jìn)一步搞單邊主義的美國(guó)來，不管國(guó)際社會(huì)怎么評(píng)價(jià)，小布什在美國(guó)選民中的支持率卻一直在上升。另一方面，戈?duì)栐谏蠈每偨y(tǒng)選舉失利后，一度淡出政壇，甚至蓄起了胡子。盡管最近因中期大選以來又活躍起來，頻繁出在公共場(chǎng)合和媒體上，可是對(duì)比起小布什來，戈?duì)栯y免是一個(gè)無所作為的“閑客”。所以，在美國(guó)民意調(diào)查中，小布什的支持率要高于戈?duì)?0%以上。</p><p>　　</p><p>　　最后，戈?duì)栯m然對(duì)共和黨、對(duì)小布什的內(nèi)外政策持批評(píng)態(tài)度，一會(huì)兒指責(zé)小布什振舉美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)乏力，一會(huì)指責(zé)小布什“倒薩”影響反恐斗爭(zhēng)，可面對(duì)著美國(guó)對(duì)憂外患的局面，戈?duì)栍帜貌怀鍪裁础熬仁懒挤健薄Ｑ垡娦〔际埠凸埠忘h人氣指數(shù)不斷上漲，戈?duì)柣蛟S覺得與其勞民傷財(cái)再拼一輸，道不如到某個(gè)世外桃園落得個(gè)清靜。</p><p>　　</p><p>　　當(dāng)然，也不能完全排除戈?duì)栍芄士v，用這種方式獲取選民的同情，等時(shí)機(jī)成熟再殺個(gè)回馬槍。</p><p 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