Ｗｈｏ　Ｉｓ�。模铮椋睿纭。簦瑁濉。裕瑁颍澹幔簦澹睿椋睿�？|Is the game

　　Japanese foreign minister sees China as a threat while China issues its white paper on peaceful development
　　
　　On entering the new century, Sino-Japanese relations are at their lowest level in the 33 years since the two countries normalized their diplomatic relations in 1972. Bilateral high-level exchanges have been suspended for nearly five years for a variety of reasons.
　　It was thought that the situation couldn’t get any worse, until Japan’s newly appointed Foreign Minister Taro Aso’s remarks about China rubbed salt into an already raw wound.
　　“It’s a neighboring country with nuclear bombs, and its military expenditure has been on the rise for 17 years. It’s beginning to pose a considerable threat,” Aso told a news conference December 22.
　　The Chinese Government was quick to respond as Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang refuted Aso’s statement on China’s military development. “As a foreign minister, to incite such groundless rhetoric about China is extremely irresponsible. What is the real purpose?” Qin said at a regular press briefing in his ministry.
　　Qin said that it is generally acknowledged that China insists on a path of peaceful development, stressing that the country’s development has made contributions to world peace and stability, bringing East Asian countries, including Japan, great development opportunities.
　　 “The new Japanese foreign minister always makes absurd statements. Let’s think conversely. Why did Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi choose such a person as his foreign minister, since Koizumi is fully aware that Aso would create plenty of trouble? Actually, this indicates Koizumi will adopt a hard line diplomatic policy toward neighboring countries,” said Gao Hong, researcher with the Japanese Studies Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
　　The Tokyo-based Kyodo News Agency was also critical of Aso’s recent belligerence toward Japan’s neighbors, saying Aso was not contributing to relations with China and South Korea. “What he has done is ‘pouring oil on the fire,’” said a Kyodo editorial, which also condemned Aso for having “no courage to face history.”
　　It is not the first time Aso has provoked Japan’s neighbors. In November, the foreign minister attacked China and South Korea after they expressed deep concerns over Koizumi’s visits to the Yasukuni Shrine that honors convicted class A war criminals. Aso rejected China’s and South Korea’s concerns, saying they were the only countries in the world to fuss about the shrine visits.
　　
　　Turning right
　　
　　CONTINUING ADVANCE: Japan is currently the country with the second largest military expenditures worldwide, next only to the United States
　　Professor Liu Jiangyong from Beijing-based Tsinghua University explained this event from another angle, saying that the foreign minister made the remarks just to go along with the wishes of the Japanese right wing in the hope of raising his political popularity.
　　Aso is expected to be a leading candidate to succeed Koizumi in September 2006. Since the minister took office in late October 2005, he has been criticized by Japanese media for making derogatory remarks about China and South Korea.
　　According to Liu, the 65-year-old Japanese politician will have no opportunity to become Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) chief if he fails to be elected after the retirement of the party’s current chief, Koizumi. Therefore, he must use some tactics to show his hardline foreign policy, catering to domestic emerging nationalism and fishing for political capital in the next prime ministerial election.
　　“But he should consider his status of a foreign minister when he made such a comment. Actually, Koizumi’s wishful successor is not Aso, but Shinzo Abe, the Chief Cabinet Secretary in his new cabinet. Aso is only a political puppet,” Liu noted.
　　Professor Liu, who has studied China-Japan relations for a decade, said the Japanese cabinet turned sharply to the right in 2005. Especially after the Japanese general election on September 11, Koizumi clearly changed his policy toward China.
　　A survey last November conducted by conservative Japanese newspaper Yomiuri and U.S. Gallup Market Research Corp. showed that some 73 percent of Japanese respondents believe Beijing-Tokyo relations have “worsened.”
　　“If Aso goes on with his ravings against the development of China-Japan relations, he will eventually find himself a victim of right-wing forces in Japan,” Liu warned.
　　The expert mentioned a strange phenomenon in current Sino-Japanese relations. Some Japanese politicians just hurt the feelings of their neighboring countries with offensive language. When these countries show strong responses, they would repeatedly hype the responses to whip up nationalistic fervor at home. These right-wing politicians then take advantage of bubbling domestic nationalism to maintain their ratings at the polls.
　　Meanwhile, there is an external reason, which is related to U.S.-Japanese military cooperation, Liu said. During their military integration and deployment in Asia, they regard China as their potential opponent. At the same time, negotiations in this regard are not easy since Japanese people do not like to see U.S. troops stationed in their country. Thus, the right-wing politicians invented the “China threat” theory as a stepping-stone to comfort domestic public opinion.
　　
　　Double-faced tactics
　　
　　MILITARY TIES: Taro Aso meets U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during his first visit to the United States as Japanese foreign minister. While claiming China’s development as a threat, Japan strengthens its military ties with the United States
　　After Aso’s remarks on Sino-Japanese relations and the Chinese Government’s strong indignation, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi came out to calm things down December 28, asserting that he regards China not as a threat but an opportunity.
　　“China’s development is an opportunity. As for China’s growing military capability, I’ve never said it is a threat,” the prime minister was quoted as saying at a dinner in Tokyo.
　　But in Liu’s opinion, some Japanese politicians are employing double-faced tactics.
　　“They use two sentences to describe their understanding of China: China’s development is an opportunity for Japan, but China’s increase in military forces is a threat. In fact, many politicians used the first sentence and omitted the ‘but’ sentence,” said Liu.
　　Aso is the first Japanese cabinet official to talk openly about the “China threat” theory, but such rumors have a long history in the country.
　　In December 2004, the Japanese Government issued its new national defense program outline. For the first time in history, it listed the “China threat” on an official document. Some Western media commented at the time that the new outline actually exposed Japan’s military ambitions.
　　On August 2, 2005, the Japanese cabinet agreed on a 2005 defense white paper. The white paper, issued by the Japan Defense Agency, gave considerable coverage in hyping the development of China’s navy. Meanwhile, it repeatedly cites China’s national defense budget to imply China’s threat. During the same period, Japan strengthened its military ties with the United States.
　　In January 2005, a restricted document from the Japan Defense Agency on the southwest islands was laid bare, which assumed the defense of a third country’s invasion to its southwest islands. However, it included Diaoyudao, an island disputed between China and Japan, in its defense program. Only one month later, in the 2+2 meeting between Japanese and U.S. defense ministers, the Taiwan Strait was listed as one of their common strategic objectives.
　　On December 22, 2005, the Japanese ruling LDP formally presented a revised draft of its Pacifist Constitution, overtly upgrading the Self-Defense Force to self-defense army and asserting that the army is authorized to launch international cooperation to ensure peace.
　　Liu said Japan regarding China as a threat indicates some Japanese politicians have a guilty conscience. “A law-abiding person feels safe when he or she sees a policeman and will not regard the police as a threat. But a thief surely thinks the police as a threat,” he added.
　　
　　Who is threatening whom?
　　
　　Responding to Aso’s remarks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang mentioned some figures to illustrate his point. China’s military expense in 2004 is $25.6 billion. Japan’s is 1.62 times that figure. Meanwhile, China’s per-capita military expense is $23, but the figure in Japan is $1,300. In China, the average expense for a soldier is $13,000, while in Japan it is $200,000, 15 times that of China’s expense.
　　“Japan’s territory is only one 20th of China’s territory and its population is only one 10th of China’s. However, it has such a huge military expense--what’s the purpose?” asked Qin.
　　It is a thought-provoking phenomenon that Japan maintains such a huge military expenditure as the country currently faces no external military threat and no country has the intention to invade Japan, said Liu.
　　After taking the road of peaceful development in the 60 years since World War II, Japan added new missions to its military forces. That is, besides keeping its own peace, its military forces could go out to participate in world peacekeeping missions. The new draft of their constitution also expands the outskirt of Japan’s security scope internationally by authorizing the forces to take actions worldwide through coordination with its allies. “Once Japan deviates from its peaceful development road, its military forces alone cannot maintain its security,” said Liu.
　　According to Liu, Japan is a country with the second largest military expenditures next only to the United States, with the figure exceeding the combined military expenditures of China and Russia. Meanwhile, Japan does not possess nuclear weapons and is under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. It shifts its costs of nuclear prevention to the United States and uses this sum of money to develop its hi-tech conventional weaponry.
　　“Japan actually has the strongest land, sea and air forces in Asia regarding conventional military forces,” Liu added.
　　
　　China misread
　　
　　“To some extent, China is misread by other countries consciously and unconsciously,” said Shui Junyi, a China Central TV host in his program International Observation.
　　On the same day as Aso’s remarks on China, the Information Office of China’s State Council issued a white paper entitled China’s Peaceful Development Road, which said the country seeks to provide more development opportunities and bigger markets for the rest of the world.
　　“China did not seek hegemony in the past, nor does it now, and will not do so in the future when it grows stronger,” the white paper said.
　　The white paper, aimed at introducing government policy to foreign readers, was issued two days after China’s 2004 GDP was revised upward by nearly 17 percent, a move that could make China the world’s fourth biggest economy based on 2005 calculations.
　　The upward revision will likely fuel further global concerns over China’s rise as it modernizes its military, consumes greater global resources and becomes richer, analysts said.
　　“It [the white paper] will help the international community to gain a better understanding of China and dispel the worries and misunderstanding of some people,” said Yue Xiaoyong, a professor with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. “It will also help to rebuff remarks about an emerging ‘China threat.’”
　　The white paper reflects China’s further understanding of development, namely that domestic affairs should be considered in relation to international factors and vice versa, he said.
　　According to Liu, there are three groups of people who regard China as a threat. The first misread and misjudge China and they need more contact with China; the second have their own purpose by using the “China threat” theory as a guise; the third take a hostile attitude to China and regard everything China does as a threat.
　　“I hope those Japanese right-wing politicians do not belong to the third group of people,” Liu stressed.
　　

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