[股指期貨變革]股指期貨交易規(guī)則

　　2010年伊始,終于傳來股指期貨獲得國務院原則通過的消息,期待已久的股指期貨即將進入中國投資者的視野和生活中,它是中國資本市場創(chuàng)新的重要里程碑,標志著中國資本市場自此走向多層次,變革將由此展開。
　　
　　5年磨一劍
　　從2004年開始醞釀到如今修成正果,股指期貨的推出走過了5個多年頭。期間,幾次聲起又幾次聲落。
　　2004年,上證所開始著手開發(fā)股指期貨。2006年,中國金融期貨交易所股份有限公司公布了“滬深300指數(shù)期貨暫定合約”,為股指期貨做了技術準備,股指期貨會員結算體系以及股指期貨技術系統(tǒng)陸續(xù)就緒。
　　2007年是重要的一年,管理層推出股指期貨的步伐明顯加快。
　　當時的氣氛給投資者的感覺,股指期貨呼之欲出,很多證券期貨公司紛紛舉辦股指期貨培訓班和講習班。但是,由于當時中國資本市場正在全面實施股權全流通改革,其過程異常艱巨,從監(jiān)管部門到市場各方參與者都投身其中,股指期貨被無聲地拖后了。
　　此后全球金融危機爆發(fā),中國股市處在劇烈的動蕩中,此時推出風險更大,更不易把握的股指期貨顯然不合時宜。
　　2009年,創(chuàng)業(yè)板創(chuàng)立。特別是市場迎來了全流通的時代,市場規(guī)模得到了發(fā)展,有了一個比較成熟的有足夠大規(guī)模的藍籌股市場,股指期貨的推出已是勢所必然,水到渠成。
　　
　　漲跌都能賺錢
　　相對于以前的產品,股指期貨是一種全新的概念,從名字就可看出,這是一個身跨兩個市場的產品,既離不開股市,又具有期貨的特點,它的推出將深刻改變中國資本市場的面貌格局。
　　股指期貨的推出將在真正意義上開啟一個金融產品創(chuàng)新的時代,緩解產品同質化所可能帶來的市場共振和系統(tǒng)性風險。市場變得相對溫和平穩(wěn),過去現(xiàn)貨市場每有并購和重組消息,必然引起一輪大的投機波動,引入股指期貨將有效平抑這類風險。因為,單向交易容易導致過度投機,而股指期貨的出現(xiàn),任何時間段都出現(xiàn)了多空兩種力量真正的對壘、制衡,它在一定程度上可以穩(wěn)定市場,以前單向交易的時候,很容易導致過度投機,在一個時間段,大家都是多頭,利好政策一出臺,大家都拼命做多,拼命往高拉,拉的越高賺錢越多,機構越好出貨。另一個時間段,大家都是空頭,利空政策出臺了,大家都拼命拋單,你也拋,他也拋,容易造成暴漲暴跌。
　　在金融危機中可以看到,股指期貨作為重要的資產配置工具,非常有利于投資者迅速、靈活地調整和優(yōu)化其資產結構,是構建具有規(guī)避系統(tǒng)性風險特征金融產品的基礎。在這樣的市場里面,投資者賺錢會有更多的機會。通過賣出一定量的股指期貨合約,可以有效改變組合資產的風險收益特征,促進基金等投資產品的多樣化,滿足不同類型的投資需求。
　　作為雙向交易的重要手段,股指期貨能夠發(fā)揮大盤藍籌股價值的正向作用。股指期貨將使更多資金聚集到大盤藍籌股周圍,以滬深300為代表的大盤藍籌績優(yōu)股將突出。過去20年來,股民習慣炒題材股,股票市場要講故事,這種情況,恐怕將會被大盤藍籌股所取代。作為股指期貨重要標的的大藍籌股,將對市場起到中流砥柱的作用。
　　
　　謹慎對待小心參與
　　從國外資本市場來看,股指期貨和股市的發(fā)展是同步的,而中國是在股市發(fā)展了16年之后才推出,這在歷史上是沒有先例的。
　　總的說來,股指期貨推出肯定對大盤有正面作用,但不會改變市場原來的運行趨向。而股市從單邊運行改為雙向運行,長周期的波動會降低,但短周期的波動會增加。正因為股指期貨對股指有助漲助跌作用,某些權重股股價的波動也直接影響到股指乃至股指期貨的波動,所以對股市投資者來說,即使是只買賣股票而不參與股指期貨交易,也應對股指期貨有所了解,否則賠了錢也不知道是怎么賠的。
　　在期貨市場的確有很多散戶變成大戶,但是這樣的人畢竟是少數(shù)。新的政策推出后,市場將會有個尋求均衡的過程,開始的時候市場的波動會超出人們的預期,但會逐漸趨于平緩。廣大散戶,特別是在股票市場里市值在幾十萬以下的投資者,要學會看股指期貨的價值波動,以及形成延期價格的預期,思量自己手中的現(xiàn)貨股票應該怎么做,最好是多看少動。除非是有非常好的對價值的預期,有期貨的操作經驗,能管得住自己,風險控制也不錯,否則就不要輕易參與股指期貨的買賣,特別是在股票市場里基本上做得不錯,就更不要參與股指期貨的炒作。
　　
　　Stock-index futures will open a new era for innovation of financial products in real sense, and will reduce the possibility of market resonance and systematic risk resulted from product homogeneity, therefore the market will become more mild and steady. In the past, news of merger or restructuring in cash markets would necessarily arouse a new round of speculation fluctuation, whereas this kind of risks can be effectively leveled if stock-index futures is introduced into market. This is because one-way trade will easily lead to excessive speculation, while stock-index futures can result in genuine contravallation and counterbalance of two powers including “buy up and bear off’ in any period of time that can stabilize the market in a certain degree. One-way trade can easily lead to excessive speculation. In a certain period of time, everyone is buying up, especially when bullish policy is promulgated, and the more people are buying up, the higher the price is raised, the more profits they get and the more easily the institutions sell. On the other hand, in some other period of time, everyone is bearing off, and when bad policy is promulgated, they are selling off, which can easily result in rise and slump suddenly and steeply.
　　It can be discovered from the financial crisis that, as an important tool of asset allocation, stock-index futures is very beneficial for the investors to rapidly and neatly regulate and optimize the asset structure and it is the basis for manufacturing the financial products characterized by avoiding systematic risks. In this kind of market, investors will have more opportunities to earn money. By selling a certain amount of stock-index futures contracts, they can efficiently change the risk-return feature of the portfolio and boost investment products such as funds towards diversification to satisfy investment needs of different types.
　　As an important tool for two-way trade, stock-index futures is able to play a positive role as big board blue chips. It will attract more capital to the big board blue chips, which, represented by Hushen 300 Index, will perform excellently. For the past 20 years, the stock holders have been used to buy subject shares and story-telling in stock market. Nevertheless, this will be replaced by the big board blue chips which will play a pivotal role in market as the important subject matter of the stock-index futures.

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